Puell Multiple
An on-chain metric comparing the daily value of newly mined coins to its own long-run moving average, used to gauge mining profitability and market cycle extremes.
The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily value of newly issued coins (the number of coins mined that day, multiplied by the day's price) by the 365-day moving average of that same daily issuance value. It's designed to capture how unusually high or low miner revenue is at a given moment relative to its own typical recent history, rather than relative to price alone.
A very high Puell Multiple has historically coincided with periods of outsized miner revenue relative to the recent norm, which some analysts associate with late-cycle market tops, while a very low reading has historically coincided with miner revenue compression often seen near cycle bottoms. Like other on-chain cycle-timing metrics, the Puell Multiple reflects historical pattern correlation rather than a guaranteed predictive relationship, and mining economics (such as hash rate growth and difficulty adjustment) can shift the metric's baseline over time.
Examples
- A Puell Multiple reading far above its historical norm suggests miner revenue is unusually elevated relative to its own recent trailing average, a condition some analysts associate with late-cycle conditions.
- Because the Puell Multiple is based on miner revenue rather than price directly, it can behave differently from simpler price-based cycle indicators during periods of unusual hash rate growth.